Tear gas in Egypt's winter air

It was probably inevitable that, with Egypt’s unfinished revolution, the optimism of the Arab Spring would turn to a winter of discontent. The role of the armed forces has come under intense scrutiny with production, at the beginning of November, of a draft constitution, that would entrench military power without accountability. Islamist groups called for nationwide protests on 18 November since when 38 people have been reported killed and over 2000 injured in clashes with the security forces.

Demands for the document to be dropped have escalated into a call for removal of the ruling military council and its replacement by a civilian government. Tahrir Square in Cairo has, once again, become the focus of attention, as media footage has shown the military unable or unwilling to control the situation without bloodshed. But there are protests all over the country as frustration builds at the slow pace of change. All this is taking place just days before the first round of parliamentary elections, due on 28 November and which could now be delayed or postponed indefinitely.

In Tahrir Square, the taste of tear gas still lingers. Ahmed Samih, of the Andalus Institute for Tolerance and Anti-Violence Studies, says: “The police have been very tense. The military have tried to control the situation but have not been able. The government has resigned. It is a battle of wills between the people and the military.”

Now protestors are calling again for a million people to descend on Tahrir Square. In a statement on Tuesday, General Tantawi, the head of Egypt’s ruling army council, offered significant concessions including a referendum on shifting power to a civilian government, and bringing forward the presidential election to the first half of 2012.

The response from Tahrir was the same as that to Mubarak in his last days of power: “Irhal! Irhal!” Leave, leave. There is still raw anger at the killings of the last few days, and many of the injured are among those camped out in the square. If protests on Friday achieve anything near the numbers called for, Egypt’s military rulers will have little room left for manoeuvre.